Monday, October 12, 2009

2009 NFL for Dummies (Weighing in on Week 5)

I haven’t really made any predictions this season, but outside of the Broncos, Bengals, Titans, Saints, and Panthers I don’t think it would have changed much if I had done this pre-season. Keeping this one simple I am going to divide up all 32 teams by conference and place them in categories as to how they have performed and how I think they will perform this season. Having signed up for the NFL Red Zone package this season I am hoping I am better equipped than ever! After 5 weeks of NFL football as the fat fish (Coach Bill Parcells) used to say, “you are what you are:"

NFC

Elite Teams – best teams in the league, the teams you should sit down and watch every week

  • Saints - They have been here before and always leave the critics wondering if they have staying power, but with their schedule unless Brees goes down I don’t see them losing more than 3 or 4 games. Aside from QB their overall depth has vastly improved.
  • Giants – They are probably the best and most consistent team in the NFL. Even with injuries they find ways to win.
  • Vikings – This was destined to be a good team w/o having a decent QB. Now with Favre surrounded by all of this talent and a great defense if he can hold up this team is scary!
  • Eagles – Just to show I am not just going down the line and picking the teams with the best records, this team has a top 5 player at so many positions and backups that would start on some teams. Their only loss is to Saints and they kept rolling w/o arguably the NFL’s best QB in McNabb. Unlike previous years if McNabb or Westbrook goes down expect this team to keep rolling

Likely Playoff Teams – these teams should be in if they win the games they are supposed to win

  • Falcons – More than anything with the NFC South having 2 inept teams, the Falcons are playing pretty good football and likely to win 10 or 11 games.
  • Cardinals – Someone has to win the NFC West! I would like to pick a pretty talented Seattle team but they will have a hard time fighting through all of the injuries and also have a pretty tough schedule. The 49ers are the hot pick but I doubt they have the staying power. Although Super Bowl losing teams often miss the playoffs the following season, the Cardinals only need 6-7 more wins to get in and with the Rams twice, the Lions, the Titans, and the Panthers remaining on the schedule this is almost a lock!

In the Hunt – teams that will make it hard for their conference and divisional foes

  • 49ers –In a mediocre NFC West basically all of the teams have a shot! This will come down to head-to-head matchups in the division of which they have already won in games against the Cardinals and Seahawks, but with no depth on this young team injuries are going to take a toll.
  • Seahawks - This is a very talented team, but w/o QB Matt Hassleback for a few weeks they looked awful. When Hassleback is laying this team has a chance to win, but with key injuries on the OL I don't think this team will keep there key players healthy enough to hold up.
  • Bears – This was a decent team without a QB, now they have a franchise QB in Cutler. Team that up with some good coaching and this is a team that definitely has a shot. If they can hold serve against the Vikings late in December this could be a Wild Card team.

Window Shopping – teams that will find themselves a play or two away when they look back on the season

  • Packers – this team will likely be 9-7, but this year I don’t think that is going to get you in the playoffs in the NFC (except for the NFC West where the division winner may be 9-7). They are going to have to beat one of the teams in the hunt head-to-head. Fortunately they will get a shot!
  • Cowboys – not only will they not beat any teams in which they are the underdog, but they will certainly lose to teams when they are the favorite. Looking at the December schedule they could possibly lose all of their last 5 games.

What Happened? – These teams can’t be this bad...

  • Redskins – I think I am one of the few people surprised as the Redskins were picked to wallow by most critics, but I just thought they had too much talent. Another early 1st RD draft pick will be great for their new coach.
  • Panthers – this is actually a recurring theme for the Panthers, up one season down the next….

Looking forward to the 2010 Draft – stockpile more talent, it may be a few more years

  • Lions, Bucs, and Rams – not even worth the editorial……

AFC

Elite Teams – unlike the NFC, this team is in a class all alone

  • Colts – Manning is having his best start to a season, which is actually better than pretty much any QB ever!! Good to see this team pass the torch and keep rolling. We are going to need at least 2 teams to beat them to show the rest of the league it can be done

Likely Playoff Teams – these teams should be in if they win the games they are supposed to win.

  • Broncos – not sure how the other critics see it, but I still can’t call the AFC’s only other unbeaten team “elite.” Fortunately for them they play well at home, but they go on the road now. The Broncos kind of remind me of the Steelers last season, you keep wondering how many games can a team win going down to the last play of the game?? The Steelers rode that all the way to a 6th Super Bowl. This team will likely win 11 games!
  • Chargers – For whatever reason the critics are down on the Chargers, but I see this team at worst only losing 2-3 more games and actually winning the AFC West. Pound for pound the most talented team in the AFC.
  • Jets – Although the critics want to make them an “elite” team because of the outstanding play of Rookie QB Mark Sanchez what I see is the best OL in the NFL making it easy-peasy-lemon-squeezy for the young QB. The scheduling gods set it up good for this team to make the playoffs…
  • Patriots – As long as Tom Brady is the QB and Bill Belichick is the coach I am picking this team for the playoffs.
  • Ravens – I am looking for the Ravens to do what the Steelers did last season, battle close and win a lot of tight games. Fortunately for them the schedule has most of their toughest games at home.

In the Hunt – teams that will make it hard for their conference and divisional foes

  • Steelers – last year’s Super Bowl champs are similar to the Panthers in being unable to string along consecutive strong seasons. They won their fair share of close games last season, but luck is starting to run out! They will make it hard on every team they play.
  • Bengals – When the scheduling gods smiled at the Jets they decided to unleash their wrath on the Bengals. They have fought through a tough schedule already, but it just keeps getting harder. This is a good team, unfortunately they are undoubtedly in the toughest division in the AFC and there will not be room for letdowns.

Window Shopping – teams that will find themselves a play or two away when they look back on the season

  • Texans – basically the AFC’s version of the Cowboys, just a coincidence they are in the same state
  • Dolphins – unfortunately for the Dolphins they just ran out of room at the top of the AFC.

What Happened? – These teams can’t be this bad...

  • Titans – This team is the biggest surprise of the season. No one picked them to be bad, more less potentially the worst team in the league. We knew the QB Kerry Collins would eventually fall off, and the hole in the middle left by Albert Haynesworth leaving for the Redskins appears to be like a tire punched in the sidewall.
  • Jaguars – This one you could kind of see coming, but never thought this would be a team that would be getting blown away. They have too much talent and have always been too fundamentally sound to be playing as inept as they have shown thus far.

Looking forward to the 2010 Draft – stockpile more talent, it may be a few more years

  • Browns, Raiders, Bills, Chiefs – not even worth the editorial……

So to sum all of this up my playoff picks are the teams I listed as “elite" or “likely playoff teams.” I hope the teams “in the hunt” make it interesting down the stretch. My Super Bowl picks this year are the Eagles (NFC) and the Colts (AFC). I will admit this is a change from my pre-season picks (as it pertains to the Colts) as I thought there would be more of a drop-off under a new coach, but I forgot Manning does the “real” coaching on this team. I look for the Ravens and Chargers to really ride the Colts to the bitter end. The Eagles will have an extremely rough road in the playoffs, as they may not win their own division, but their potential to make big plays will give them a shot to come out victorious in any situation. I can’t help but get excited predicting a Super Bowl that puts what I believe are the 2 best QB’s in the NFL on the field to battle it out, and to sweeten the deal we will have the Black QB (McNabb) on one side, and the Black HC (Caldwell) on the other. Pretty Sweet!!!

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