Beyond Expectations

I can boast that I never once doubted Obama's Victory, but I must admit to doubting the potential for a landslide. Even with empirical data to support it, I just didn't think it would it happen until it did. So much so I even neglected reliable sources that predicted a much wider margin.

So let's look at what I predicted and what actually happened.

I predicted an Obama victory of 276-262. The actual results are 365-173. This actually outperformed even the most pro-Obama polls. So what happened?

The poll buster like a 15 seed in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament was Indiana. This was not shown as a win for Obama in any poll. Few polls even showed the race within the margin of error. This was a solid red state having voted that way since before I was born. 2 things happened in Indiana to help Obama win the state:

1) Voter Turnout: The Obama campaign having such a strong ground game in Indiana got word to the HQ that there was a chance in Indiana. Indiana being a neighboring state with a large part of the population basically considered Suburban Chicago. The Obama Campaign dispatched campaign workers and volunteers from states like Illinois and Wisconsin where victory was considered certain and flooded Indiana. Exit polls in Indiana showed that 37% of voters in Indiana were contacted by the Obama campaign, while only 22% were contacted by McCain. This happened in NV and CO also where Obama performed much better than shown in the polls. So it was more likely that voter turnout supported the victory than Republicans that decided to vote for Obama. The Democrats just got more people out to the polls than the uninspired Republican voters. The Democratic base was mobilized in this state becuase of the Primary Election where Clinton narrowly won, and the Democrats capitalized on this energy.

2) Reverse-Bradley Effect: There was a lot of talk about the Bradley Effect but it appears the reverse actually happened. I can appreciate this being in Texas (a Red State), where unfortunately Whites feel in the minority when claiming their intent to vote for a Democrat. I don't think these folks necessarily said they would vote for McCain, they more likely said they were undecided or not going to vote at all but in the end cast their vote for Obama.

So what else happened?

VA, OH, and FL. Ohio and Florida aren't total surprises as Democrats have won in these states fairly recently. More than anything Obama did "The Economy" and Sarah Palin basically handed these states to Obama. In these states people that had intended to vote for McCain changed their minds due to one or both of these issues and voted for Obama. Now in VA, I believe we have seen a shift in the electorate. Due to the margin of victory, and the fact that Democrats have prevailed overwhelmingly in political races here for the past 2 years this state may become a stronghold for Democrats. The Party must take note that the supporters in VA are Centrists (or Moderates) and maintain that position or the momentum may be lost.

North Carolina is somewhat of a cross between VA and IN. All of the factors I have mentioned came into play in this state.

The LANDSLIDE win is amazing. Obama won the Popular Vote by 8M votes and he won 28 states, DC, and even 1 Congressional District in Nebraska who distributes their electoral votes using the Congressional District Method. Equally as exiting as the states he turned BLUE NM, CO, OH, FL, IA, NV, VA, NC and IN are the states in which he collapsed the large margins the Republicans won in 2004. Looking at the map below it blends blue and red to make "purple" in many of the states that have been traditionally "red." Unlike the general electoral maps that show much of the South and Cenral US as "deep red" you will see Obama was competitive in essentially every state West of the Mississipi River and you see blue in purple in states like Montana............

A lot of gains were made across the board, maintaining the momentum that began in 2006. Obama and the majority Democratic Congress have been dealt a bad hand, but hopefully they will come together to make some real progress.