The Case for Obama Pt. XIII

The Truth is in the Numbers

There is a reason that I feel relatively confident about our chances for Obama to win this election. Although the landslide potential that once existed is all but gone, there are some pretty good reasons to feel optimistic. It’s called the Electoral College. Obama will undoubtedly win the popular vote; because without question he is MORE popular. The question is will this be enough votes in enough key states to get the 270 Electoral votes to be sworn in as President of the United States.

So let’s take a look at the numbers…….

The following table shows the number of electoral votes to which each state is entitled:




Let’s start with the states that are traditionally Democratic and tally up those Electoral votes: California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington. These states equal 190 votes.

States that vote traditionally Republican are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming. These states equal 178 votes.

For the most part when I use the phrase “traditionally” it represents how the voters of these states voted in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections. For many of these states this represents their voting pattern for the last 30 years, for other states it may represent a shift. Nevertheless you won’t get much argument from anyone that these states for 2008 will pretty much remain in line with the parties that won in the 2 previous elections. So we are left with 14 states: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin which make up the remaining 170 Electoral votes.

So here is where the discussion begins. These states are what we call “close” states, which means in most elections the outcome is by less than 10% points and in most cases less than 5%. Some of these are truly swing states (meaning the party that wins elections often shift); the others typically go for the same party with a margin of victory that just happens to be close in every election. So let’s start with the latter.

Close states that are “traditionally” Democratic (the year in parentheses is how long state has voted Democratic): Michigan (1992), Minnesota (1976), New Hampshire (1992), Wisconsin (1998), and Pennsylvania (1992). To keep the explanation of my analysis simple; the conventional wisdom is that Obama is not going to lose any states that John Kerry won in 2004. This would take all of these states out of play for the Republicans. There is a lot of talk about Pennsylvania, and although the margins have become increasingly close with the Democrats winning by as little as 2.5% in 2004. This state has voted Democratic pretty consistently. The Governor, both U.S. Senators, and the Mayors of the 2 largest cities are all Democrats. If Obama does not win in Pennsylvania he will lose this election, there is no further debate needed! Obama would pick up 62 Electoral votes by winning these states.

Close states that are traditionally Republican (the year in parentheses is how long state has voted Republican): Indiana (1968) and Virginia (1968). You hear the Obama campaign taking a lot about these states, but to be honest these are Republican strongholds. Indiana is almost ridiculous to discuss as the Republicans have experienced double digit margins of victory in this state for decades even when the other MW states voted Democratic. Virginia is an interesting discussion as it was a little closer in the last election with a margin of victory of 8.2% for the Republicans. There is a lot of talk of the large population of Black voters and high potential to enroll many unregistered voters likely to vote Democratic. As well as having recently elected a Democratic Governor and US Senator, and with a new Senate seat coming open that is likely going to be won by a Democrat. It all sounds good, but personally I just think 8% points is an unrealistic gain to make up. If Obama can make gains this huge in some of these states being discussed we are talking about a landslide victory, but I would say this is unlikely. Just to give you a sense of how great of a margin 8.2% is; consider that a Democratic stronghold like CA was only won by 10%. McCain would pick up 24 Electoral votes by winning in these states.

I think in the states where a party loses by a margin of greater than 5% points I would take that state out of play for the losing party. Meaning it is unlikely they would be able to gain enough support to win that state for the 2008 election This logic is consistent in my overall analysis. I even considered some states less than 5% of out of play simply because although the results are close they consistently support the same party.

So this leaves the following as the “true” swing states: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico.

Obama will win: Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. Obama would pick up 21 more Electoral votes by winning these states. Most would not argue Iowa and New Mexico as they typically vote Democratic and Obama seems to carry the same themes that have rallied these states in the past. The stretch here is Colorado which although very close in the last few elections at 4.6% wins for the Republicans. This state has only voted for a Democrat for President once since 1964. So I have to admit Colorado is based on more of a gut feeling than anything else. I just so happened to have a gentleman from the Denver area stay at my house as he worked for the Obama campaign during the Primary Elections in Texas. We discussed the energy for the campaign in Colorado. Large numbers of volunteers, a lot of fundraising and an extreme hatred for the Bush administration that seems to have successfully carried over to McCain makes winning in Colorado a strong possibility. In addition, Colorado has a fairly well balanced roster of elected officials considering it has leaned Republican for President. In Colorado, the Governor, 1 US Senator, and 4 of the 7 US Congressional Representatives are Democrats. Over 70% of the State Legislators are Democrats, as well as the Mayor of Denver and many other cities across the state. Many of which have been voted into office since the 2004 election. So I do have a little empirical data to support my gut feeling!!

McCain will win: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada. McCain would pick up 63 Electoral Votes by winning these states. All of these states typically vote Republican, but have shown the tendency to vote for the other party if they like the candidate. For the voters in these states for whatever reason Obama does not appear to be that guy! These states will be close again, as in the urban areas in these states Obama will do well, but these states all have a lot of rural voters that I just don’t think are going to be persuaded to change their typical voting pattern. In addition unlike Colorado theses states do not have a Democratic stronghold of Elected Officials. In fact most of these states have about as a significant Republican stronghold as the case I made about the Democrats in Colorado.


So pull out your calculator and do the math, based on my analysis this would score Obama 273 - McCain 265. Wow that is close!! If I am wrong about a state here or there the outcome could definitely be different, but I think I did a fairly conservative analysis…